Well, now it’s crystal clear: The 49ers are going to have plenty of money to spend on Brock Purdy’s new deal this offseason. More than plenty. Plenty of plenty.
And money to spend on Joey Bosa (maybe Tuesday or Wednesday). And other free agents. And maybe a new extension for George Kittle. And hey, why not one for Fred Warner, too.
The other thing that’s clear after a day of watching a cavalcade of 49ers stalwart veterans either sign elsewhere or get released at the advent of free agency: The 49ers had better spend money somewhere.
Or else … what’s the plan here? Just bow out of playoff contention and make sure Jed York’s bottom line is OK? Accept that the best days of this run are over and they need to start a general roster overhaul? Better luck next era?
For now, I’ll give the 49ers the benefit of the doubt. This is just the start of free agency. A reset in the middle of the 49ers’ roster was, in some sense, overdue. That started with the trading of Deebo Samuel and it continued through Monday’s departures of Charvarius Ward, Talanoa Hufanga, Aaron Banks, and several others, which had been telegraphed for weeks.
But then the 49ers lost Dre Greenlaw, probably the veteran free agent they most wanted to keep, to the Denver Broncos. They were willing to get into the bidding to keep Greenlaw, but they were not willing to win it. And after that came the report that the 49ers will be releasing Kyle Juszczyk after asking him to take a pay cut for the second consecutive season. This time, Juszczyk declined, and now he’s about to be an ex-49er.
Against that backdrop, the list of incoming veterans is quite the contrast. So far, it’s just backup tight end Luke Farrell. And the 49ers’ have many, many holes to fill — way more after Monday’s proceedings.
What’s the deal here? The point I always make: This is much more about cash spending than it is about fitting under the salary cap. The 49ers have lots of cap space. But as John Lynch pointed out recently, due to the bonuses they’ve paid out to veterans lately, they’ve been at the top of the cash spend for the last few years. And they no longer want to be in that position — especially after last season’s 6-11 descent.
This has been hinted at and suggested for weeks, and now it’s a practical reality. The 49ers are done paying for past performance and are freeing their roster of veterans that they believe have been overvalued. They’re seeking undervalued players. They’ll have to nail this year’s draft just as thoroughly as they nailed last year’s class. Really, if not for the 2024 class, they’d be totally adrift, because that group is set up to replace most of Monday’s castoffs.
Last year, immediate production from Dominick Puni, Renardo Green, Malik Mustapha, Ricky Pearsall, and Isaac Guerendo was kind of a bonus, especially after the 49ers suffered so many injuries. Now, they need three or four significant players from this year’s draft. These are not luxury items. They are necessary. If they don’t hit on this year’s draft — including nabbing a star with the 11th pick — the 49ers might just turn into a perpetually mediocre team.
I don’t think York and his financial people want that. I think they believe this is a smart and practical way to winnow down the overpayments and maintain a quality roster while retooling on the fly.
I also continue to hear that the conversations with Purdy’s camp have been good throughout this process. Neither side is taking an extreme position and both sides believe an extension is within reach before too long. Nothing is imminent with Purdy — the 49ers are pretty busy right now — but I expect that there will be a deal by May or so. Everybody I talk to expects a deal, and I talk to some people who can be very pessimistic.
So yes, a Purdy deal, whenever it happens, would be a sign that there is a practical plan here. But it hasn’t happened yet. And it’s just part of the explanation for this.
It’s not wrong for a team to decide that it won’t overpay for 30-somethings. But the 49ers have to figure out when to pay the right 30-somethings. They have to show the leaders of the locker room that there’s still a commitment to paying what it takes to win. Even if that commitment has been adjusted a bit, the 49ers can still do this by paying Kittle and Warner what they deserve for remaining at the very top of their games.
And the 49ers have to show their players, coaches, and fans that they’ve stayed out of Day 1 of free agency for a strategic reason. That’s when the overpayments happen. That’s when regrettable deals are made. Day 2 is when the smartest teams can jump into the opportunity market.
Well, let’s see the 49ers do that. You can give them all the benefit of the doubt for Day 1, but that means the other days — and the other players — are more important now. I think Lynch and Kyle Shanahan might agree with this.
It’s as clear as it can be now. Fiscal restraint isn’t wrong. It’s practical. But nobody is showing up for games and paying those high prices to applaud York’s bank account. The 49ers’ money people have made their point. Now they have to start paying out some money.