Warriors-Rockets series preview: What Steve Kerr’s coaching staff has to prepare for

Today is one of Steve Kerr’s favorite days of the year. 

It’s the day that he comes into work with all the coaches on his staff and does a deep dive of a playoff opponent. He’s done it dozens of times over his 11 years as Warriors head coach. He knows what he’s doing.

For the fifth time in the dynastic era, Kerr will be poring through Houston Rockets tape. 

This Rockets team is different from the James Harden-led teams the Warriors are 4-0 against on their journeys to four titles. The setting, though, is familiar. Game 1 is on Sunday at the Toyota Center, with Game 2 set for Wednesday.

The Warriors have four days to prepare. The players get Wednesday off as the coaches hunker down. They’ll install the game plan Thursday with a film session — the type of extended study that has become legendary within the walls of 1 Warriors Way. 

Those sessions can last up to 90 minutes, Gary Payton II said. Draymond Green was telling his teammates how much he’s looking forward to it. Steph Curry said the goal is to understand the Rockets better than they know themselves.

“That preparation, getting ready for a team that you know you got to see possibly seven times in a row, is so fun,” Green said. “It’s like no other.” 

“It reminds you of just how much fun the playoffs are, and that chess match that goes back and forth, and so sitting down that first film session gets the juices flowing,” Curry said. 

Here are some topics that could be broached. 

The Warriors matched up with the Rockets five times this season, including the In-Season Tournament. In their two losses, they committed 20 and 22 turnovers. In their three wins, they coughed it up 11, 10, and 14 times. 

Against an athletic, vicious Houston defense, that’s the key. As Jimmy Butler says, the Warriors need to put shots on goal. 

The Rockets ranked fourth in defensive rating this year, though they’re league-average at generating turnovers. Many of the Warriors’ turnovers are self-inflicted. In any series, but especially one against Houston, taking care of the ball is high on the Warriors’ priority list. 

Last time the Rockets and Warriors squared off, dynamic guard Amen Thompson hounded Curry, limiting the two-time MVP to three points on 1-for-10 shooting. As the teams walked to their respective locker rooms for halftime, Rockets coach Ime Udoka exchanged words with Curry.

“When people start complaining about foul calls or crying about physicality, you’ve done your job,” Udoka told The Athletic then. “That’s the first step in winning the battle. So I told my team, when this team starts crying about it, up the intensity, up the aggressiveness, and make the refs adjust to you.” 

Curry is undoubtedly going to see plenty of Thompson over the next two weeks. As perhaps the best athlete in the league, Thompson is uniquely equipped to chase Curry around and rough him up. Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet aren’t slouches, either. Houston will also probably try Tari Eason for bursts.

Golden State will have to cook up counters. Can they run actions to get mismatches switched onto Curry? Should Curry expend energy bringing the ball up against pressure? If he gets off the ball early in a possession, can he trust his teammates to find him later in the trip? 

In the two biggest games of the Warriors’ season, Kerr benched Jonathan Kuminga. His fit next to Jimmy Butler has been rough, and the head coach trusted his veterans more than the fourth-year wing. Butler’s ability to play 40-plus minutes in the playoffs also limits opportunities. 

But the Warriors just might need Kuminga against Houston. 

While he’s prone to defensive lapses and mental mistakes, Kuminga is the Warriors’ best chance at matching the Rockets’ top-end athleticism. He showed as much in matchups this year. 

In a win over the Rockets without both Curry and Green, Kuminga dropped 33 points while running high pick-and-rolls in crunch time. In the other two Rockets games he suited up for, Kuminga scored 20 and 23 points. 

It’s a good matchup for Kuminga. 

“He’ll be meaningful for us in that series,” Green said. “I have zero doubt about that. I think the challenge for him is to stay mentally engaged, as it is for anyone in that situation. But I have zero doubt in my mind that he’s going to help us in this series. He will, 1,000%.” 

The key Green alluded to is whether Kuminga will be mentally ready for when — or if — Kerr calls his number. Kerr said he didn’t factor in the risk of proverbially losing a player like Kuminga when he made the decision to DNP him twice, noting that all that matters is winning games at this juncture of the season. 

If the coaching staff determines Kuminga can help them win games against the Rockets, the forward will have to have himself ready to play a role. 

The Rockets ranked first in both offensive rebounds and total rebounds per game. Much of that is due to their ability to play centers Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams simultaneously. 

Sengun and Adams shared the court 162 minutes this year, posting a net rating of +29.9. The Rockets logged a ludicrous 51.4% offensive rebounding rate in those minutes. 

Memphis gave the Warriors issues in the second half of the play-in game while playing Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. together. Adams and Sengun pose even bigger problems. 

Gang rebounding, hustling to 50/50 balls, and tipping out misses will be necessary to keep Adams and Sengun from controlling the glass. Kevon Looney’s services might be required, too. 

The flipside is that with Sengun and Adams both on the floor, one of them will have to guard a perimeter player. Many teams have stuck a center on Moses Moody recently. Memphis assigned Edey to Butler in an experiment the Warriors exploited. Golden State’s small-ball game must be in tip-top shape to counterbalance Houston’s double bigs. 

But what makes Houston special is their lineup versatility. They can play Sengun, Adams, both, or neither. When they spread the floor in a five-out look with Jabari Smith Jr. at center, they’re very difficult to defend. The Warriors have struggled at times against that look, notably in a recent loss to San Antonio and against the Nuggets without Aaron Gordon. 

The Rockets playing long stretches with Smith at five would be trying to beat the Warriors at their own game. That’s dangerous, but it’s something the Warriors are bracing for.