Kawakami: A Kuminga update, no Durant, and more Warriors pre-July thoughts

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It was just two notable basketball fans enjoying a Valkyries game together — which turned into the Warriors photo op of the spring — not a definitive statement of anything.

Well, that’s how Joe Lacob describes it now — he invited Jonathan Kuminga to sit with him courtside back in May for the Valkyries’ inaugural game at Chase Center. They looked like they had a wonderful time together. Steve Kerr, Brandin Podziemski, and Kevon Looney were also there, but not, at least most of the time, seated next to Lacob.

And Kuminga is a restricted free agent who hasn’t fit in Kerr’s system and is possibly on his way out, yet he’s also very talented and one of Lacob’s personal favorites. No message there, Lacob told me last weekend.

“I don’t think you should read too much into it,” Lacob said with a small smile. “I had Brandin Podziemski sit with me for a game. Steph (Curry) was supposed to be here and then had to cancel for an event, he had something he had to do. But he’ll be at one of the games, I’m sure. Jimmy Butler, if I can get him, wherever he’s traveling, I’d love to have him to a game.

“I just think it’s fun to sit with those guys in the offseason at one of these women’s games. They all enjoy it, too. I think that’s really all it is.”

I’ll add: Even if Lacob was sending a message with this seating arrangement (and he probably was), it wasn’t a permanent one. And now, with the July movement period closing in, it’s relatively important to note that Lacob is acknowledging the possibility of a Kuminga sign-and-trade. Even if Lacob wishes there was another way to do this.

“Look, it’s difficult,” Lacob said. “You get close to all your players. … So yeah, it probably would be difficult to lose someone that’s been here four years; he is part of our organization, and a great guy.

“But this is a business. And we have to do the best thing to build a team. And he is a free agent. He gets to choose. He’s restricted. So we have that on our side. But it’s business and we just have to see how it goes. Let’s see what happens.”

It’s a complicated situation. The Warriors need to try to keep Kuminga’s trade value high, but they also don’t want to pay him huge money (and go deep into the luxury tax) when they’re not sure what his role would be next season. And they would want something good in return if they trade him — but CBA rules limit what kind of money they can take back for him this summer; also, the acquisitional market is limited to the teams that want Kuminga enough to pay him and give up something. Tricky.

It might be simplest for the Warriors to sign Kuminga to a shorter-term deal at a decent salary — or match what a team with cap room offers — buy some time, then see if they can trade him in six months, when they’d be far less limited by CBA rules.

“I would take a lot for me not to match, for us not to match,” Lacob said. “But again, we have to look at what makes our team best and that’s really up to Mike (Dunleavy) to make those decisions and to recommend to ownership what to do. It’s going to play out pretty soon; you won’t have to wait too much longer.”

Conclusion: The Kuminga situation is still very much up in the air, maybe with a lean toward the Warriors retaining him at least into the season; but if there’s a good deal to be made, Lacob — contrary to what his May photo op seemed to imply — isn’t going to stand in the way. He didn’t get in the way of trading James Wiseman back in February 2023, and, as Warriors officials occasionally remind me, Lacob liked Wiseman back then even more than he likes Kuminga now.

They got Durant back in 2016, lost him in 2019, and almost got him back last February, when the Warriors and Phoenix Suns agreed on a trade that fell apart after Durant told the Warriors that he didn’t want it to happen.

Lacob’s Warriors are always interested in Durant. I’m sure they checked in again recently. If you’re drawing up a list of players who can maximize the final years of Curry’s prime, Durant’s name remains at the top of the list. And KD is likely to be traded before next week’s draft.

But two things make it very unlikely that the Warriors will be the team that ends up with Durant this time: 1) Durant still doesn’t want to do the Warriors thing again and the Warriors understand how sour it can get when he’s unhappy; 2) The Warriors pivoted to Jimmy Butler when they couldn’t get Durant last winter and Butler’s happy here, he fit in tremendously, and messing around with that chemistry doesn’t seem like the wisest play.

They came close to trading several players to the LA Clippers for George and giving him a five-year deal worth more than $200 million. They never came that close to an agreement with Utah to acquire Markkanen and pay him more than $200 million, but the Warriors tried. Back then, they actually thought they might be able to acquire both players — and yes, pay them a combined $450 million or so.

The Warriors’ thinking now on that whole endeavor? Whew. PG13 struggled through one of the worst seasons of his career in Philadelphia and likely will not be worth anything close to the $51.7 million he’s due next season, $54.1 million due in 2026-27, and $56.6 million due in 2027-28, his age-38 season. And Markkanen had a middling performance last season — and is due $46.4 million next season, $46.1 million in 2026-27, $49.8 million in ’27-28, and, $53.5 million in ’28-29.

The Warriors basically switched Butler into the financial and trade-asset slot they would’ve used for George. And they will see which other stretch-5s are available at far cheaper prices than Markkanen. But the Warriors also believe that Quinten Post might grow into a very productive shooting center — and could be their starting center next season.

Unless the Warriors trade Butler or Draymond Green (which they almost certainly will not), it’d be almost impossible for them to take back a player with any kind of maximum salary in a trade. And in a Kuminga sign-and-trade possibility, the Warriors could only take back half of Kuminga’s first-year salary this summer.

So that narrows down the Warriors’ true options on the trade market to middle-range players — guys who make or could be acquired and signed for no more than $30 million (and even that would be a stretch). That could be a backup wing player who has proven he can make plays but needs a fresh start. It could be a versatile big man on a team that needs to shed salary. It could be a tall shooting guard who is stuck behind an All-Star.

I’ll come up with a list of possible targets later this month. Most of them will not be the sexiest options in the world. But Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell, and Andrew Nesmith were not sexy acquisitions when they joined the Indiana Pacers from other teams in recent years — and none of them will make more than $14 million next season. The Warriors could use two or three of those kinds of guys. Every team could use two or three of those guys. And similar players are out there, every offseason.