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So this season is not destined to turn out anything like the Giants events of 2010, when Buster Posey showed up from the minor leagues, everybody else blasted off, and World Series titles followed fairly rapidly.
Kind of the opposite so far.
Back then, it felt pretty easy. In 2025 — Posey’s debut as team president — all has been difficult. And it likely won't get any easier.
So maybe this is more like 2009, when Posey made a cameo MLB debut (then started 2010 in the minors) and when there were necessary structural changes ahead.
That part back in 2009 wasn’t as easy. Posey and Madison Bumgarner were the future. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Pablo Sandoval, and others were ready to take the big jump. Some things has to be reorganized and rethought, and some players had to be moved aside. And then 2010 (and 2012 and 2014) happened.
OK, obviously, the 2025 Giants are showing clearly, with every dispiriting home loss, that they are many levels below the 2010 version and quite short of even the 2009 team (which went 88-74).
During a flub-filled and frankly ominous second inning, when the Giants essentially invited the Padres to score seven runs on the way to an 11-1 humiliation, the Giants looked and felt like they were 1,000 steps from contention. And the mood in Oracle Park got as dark as it can possibly get on a sunny day in Mission Bay.
Something is wrong here. Something is very wrong.
But the theme of this recycling might be similar: Last offseason, as he was just taking charge, Posey understandably leaned toward stability — for instance, keeping Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, and LaMonte Wade Jr. on the team when there were reasons to move on from each.
It was good for the clubhouse vibe. It helped ignite the Giants’ excellent start this season. But it was not good for the team’s ability to actually compete for the playoffs. You keep mediocre players in key positions, you’re destined to remain mediocre.
Posey also didn’t have realistic options to replace any of those three at the time. But the inevitable happened: He released Wade in June, traded Yastrzemski at the deadline, and is watching Flores stagger through the final weeks of his contract.
Posey started making major adjustments in June with the massive acquisition of Rafael Devers — which hasn’t been the 2025 jump-start the franchise was hoping for but wasn’t a deal made only for the short-term. With that contract, of course, it’s an era-defining move.
But there are more hard decisions ahead, some of which Posey bypassed last offseason and can’t ignore now.
I’ll start with a controversial one (that has been simmering for a while now).
Is Bob Melvin the right guy for 2026?
It’s a relatively small sample size for a time-tested manager, but the sloppiness has lasted for a while and begs this question, among many others:
Has anything the Giants have done for several months indicated that they’re fully prepared, focused, and energized?
I look at what Stephen Vogt is doing in Cleveland, or Dan Wilson in Seattle, or especially Pat Murphy in Milwaukee, or how well the Padres have done since Melvin exited that job to move to the Giants ... and, well, nobody is seeing any of the same things from Melvin with this team, either this year or last.
That’s not to put all or even a high percentage of blame for this on Melvin, a man Posey thought well enough of to immediately tab as manager once Farhan Zaidi was moved out and to pick up his 2026 option on July 1. Posey didn’t have to do either thing, but he did them. And knowing Posey, the last thing he wants is to scapegoat the manager just because that’s what usually happens in losing situations.
Two things I can guess from my time dealing with Posey over all these years:
1. He’s not doing anything just to react to a terrible couple of homestands (though, yes, this is an all-time terrible run); his quick decisions are usually in the positive direction (the Devers trade, the Melvin option pick-up).
2. Before seriously considering firing Melvin, Posey will need to have a strong candidate list available, or even have picked the replacement already. I’m not sure how far down that road Posey wants to go right now, but this can’t be a flippant decision. It won’t be a flippant decision.
With those cautions offered, I’ll also note that Melvin was Zaidi’s choice to replace Gabe Kapler two offseasons ago. Posey kept Melvin on in large part as another nod to stability, and it sure hasn’t worked.
Last year, the Giants were 80-82. They’re currently 59-62, and unless they pull out of this tailspin, won’t get close to 80 wins this year.
Melvin remains quite popular in the clubhouse, and there are good reasons for this. He’s a solid manager and runs a solid clubhouse. But right now, so what? Are the players too comfortable right now? Is the mix just not right?
Roster problems
The main problem isn’t the manager, of course. He’s not hitting all those pop-ups with runners on. He’s not making those errors or giving up those home runs.
The main problem is that the roster isn’t good enough. Posey inherited most of this group from Zaidi and decided not to make radical changes beyond the signing of Willy Adames, then the trade for Devers.
Right now, Devers is a foundational piece, the single guy in the lineup that opponent pitchers need to worry about and possibly pitch around.
Going into next offseason, there won’t be much Posey can do about Adames, Matt Chapman, or Jung Hoo Lee, because they’re all signed to long-term deals that likely can’t be moved. Bailey’s locked in as the catcher because he’s so valuable on defense and because he’s cheap.
That’s a lot of settled pieces, and none of them have been near the top of their games this season.
They all might be better in 2026, but they might not. I think it’s extremely likely that even if Melvin isn’t fired, his coaching staff will be redone, especially on the hitting side. I think adding significant right-handed-hitting options at center field (to platoon with Lee) and catcher (to take a lot of at-bats from Bailey) could give the lineup a different feel.
Yes, that has a Zaidi feel to it, and I know Giants fans will run screaming from that idea. Posey has emphasized lineup consistency, and there’s value in that, but not so much when the guys getting all the at-bats are consistently mediocre.
Also, the Giants just have to figure a way to not be disastrous against left-handed pitching; they’re 12-21 against left-handed starters this year, compared to a relatively solid 47-42 against right-handed starters.
There isn’t much help coming from the system, though. Top prospect Bryce Eldridge should be on the roster at some point next season — as either the first baseman or the designated hitter or splitting both spots with Devers — but he’s another left-handed hitter.
Beyond Eldridge ... it’s a question mark. So Posey likely has to do some more shopping. Which is always risky.
Can Posey trade from the franchise’s pitching depth? He already moved Kyle Harrison in the Devers deal; Hayden Birdsong is mercurial but probably showed enough to get another run at a long-term spot in the rotation; same for Landen Roupp; Carson Whisenhunt was their other top pitching prospect.
Giants fans are still showing up (so far)
It has been aggravating for top Giants people, I’m sure, that the team has been at its worst at home, while the stands have been generally filled. (We’ll see about this coming series against Tampa Bay, especially as school starts.)
But the healthy crowd-count this season is a peripheral sign of something very important to the entire Giants’ way of doing things: Fans want to believe in what Posey’s doing and will show up to prove that.
The Giants got an announced crowd of 35,080 on Wednesday, which brought the average over this long homestand so far to 36,465.
On the season as a whole, they’re averaging about 36,200, ranked eighth in MLB. That’s up about 3,000 a game from last year, when they averaged 33,096, ranked 10th. And this year’s attendance is up more than 5,000 per game from 2023, when they averaged 30,866 and ranked 17th.
Will they keep showing up in these numbers next season if nothing much changes? I doubt it. The Giants know this. I think Posey, who came to the job talking about making memories and competing for titles, absolutely knows this.
This season has been a misfire. But it can also be a lead-up to the next, difficult, necessary step.