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Kyle Shanahan made it quite clear on Wednesday: Even sitting at 4-1, atop the NFC West, and pondering the potential of greater things ahead, this is not an adrenalized all-in 49ers moment.
Not yet, at least.
Shanahan, of course, is delighted that the 49ers have found so many scrappy ways to win these games, most amazingly their grueling overtime victory over the Rams last Thursday without Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, and others.
But Shanahan is also seeing the same vulnerabilities we all see. He’s being realistic. Really, he’s not 100% sure how this season is going to turn out — and rightly so, given the 49ers’ injuries and struggles to run the ball, pressure the passer, and intercept a single pass so far.
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“Just as easily, you can lose all five and be 0-5,” Shanahan said. “And we found a way to be 4-1.”
This definitely does not have many elements of a Dominant Shanahan team and the person who knows that best is Shanahan. All fair. All accurate.
What does this mean practically? First off, the 49ers’ early success eases any kind of do-or-die urgency to rush their key players back — Kittle was eligible to come off of the injured list for Sunday’s game in Tampa but didn’t; Purdy, Pearsall, and Jennings all also seem unlikely to be fast-tracked back into action.
Why not see if the young players and other backups can keep this magic run going and let the key guys heal for another week or two?
And secondly, Shanahan’s realism is assuredly influencing and signaling the 49ers’ approach to the Nov. 4 trade deadline.
I asked him: Does this good start increase your interest in making a trade?
“Not really,” Shanahan said. “What increases my interest is who’s the guy that can absolutely help us get better this year without hurting us next year and you balance both of those out. But there’s got to be a guy available …
“Sometimes things come up, but I don’t see it any different right now than how I felt going into the year.”
Translation: The 49ers will look into trades, as they always do, but at the moment they aren’t seeing the value in giving up premium draft picks for a player who might only help them this season.
If you want to guess that Cincinnati’s current price tag on elite pass rusher Trey Hendrickson is too high … that probably wouldn’t be way off.
The 49ers have made this kind of trade before, of course, in October 2022 when they gave up second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-round picks for Christian McCaffrey and in October 2019 when they sent out third- and fourth-round picks Emmanuel Sanders.
I asked Shanahan specifically if this situation, sitting at 4-1, feels at all similar to the 2019 situation, when the 49ers raced out to a 6-0 record and definitely felt that they were just one player away from a Super Bowl run (which turned out to be true).
“No, I don’t — I don’t feel at all like that,” Shanahan said. “I think at that time we had a Super Bowl defense that was as good as anyone in the league and probably had been for, like, 10 years and it was pretty obvious. And I thought at the time some of the receivers we were dependent on weren’t there and we were playing some young rookies and we thought we needed to add another guy.
“But yeah, I don’t totally see it the same situation as right now.”
That’s very direct stuff, as always, from Shanahan. He’s essentially saying that this team isn’t showing the clear Super Bowl indicators that he saw in 2019.
Which is pragmatism and transparency to be appreciated. He’s not dancing around the topic. He’s not being political. This is not 2019. And maybe the best way to think about this run is as a prelude for what might happen in 2026.
I disagree with Shanahan on the margins of this, however. I think the 49ers’ reasonably could have a shot at the NFC Championship Game this postseason if they added a top pass rusher, which would make Hendrickson worth a top-60 pick. Or maybe even a top-32 pick.
It’s also possible that the Bengals are asking for more than that. And it’s very possible that Shanahan and John Lynch know that they’d never be able to sign Hendrickson once he becomes a free agent next offseason.
But what if the 49ers keep winning, get to 7-1 or 7-2, and look great doing it? What if the 49ers’ injured guys burst back into the lineup and what if there are no more new injuries? OK, I know it’s impossible for the 49ers to go through a single game without some kind of injury loss but go with me here.
If things still are looking really good by early November, yes, I think the 49ers’ 2025 viewpoint might change.
And Shanahan has been known to occasionally change his mind after making strong statements (see: cutting Jake Moody two days after Shanahan said that there was “no question” Moody would remain their kicker in the next game).
But there are some distinct and non-negotiable things that would likely have to happen to get the 49ers into go-for-it mode.
They have to run the ball much better and much more often
When I asked Shanahan about the 49ers’ extreme 59% pass / 41% run imbalance on offense so far, he said he’s just calling the games the way they need to be called.
But there’s no way a coach who has always said he wants to be 50-50 (and has tilted toward the run in the 49ers’ best seasons) can be happy leading the league in pass attempts, sitting in a tie for 28th in total rush yards, and as the only NFL team without a rushing touchdown so far.
Shanahan and Lynch want their team to control the game physically — win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball — but having to throw it 40 or more times a game just doesn’t fit that profile.
This might be solved when Kittle and Jennings are back slamming into linebackers and defensive backs. It might be solved if the 49ers’ offensive line tightens things up. It might be solved if defenses realize that Mac Jones is out there to throw it (and Purdy, too, when he’s back).
But we’ll see if any of that happens in the next few weeks. For now, the 49ers are a pass-pass team and that makes them vulnerable.
It adds too much variability. It puts incredible strain on the quarterback and the pass blockers to be perfect. It means the defense will almost always have to stop the opponents at the very end.
It means some great pass defense will likely shut them down in January. If they get to January.
Christian McCaffrey has to stay healthy
It’s not only so simple as this, but maybe it’s almost as simple: When McCaffrey was reduced and then gone last season, the 49ers fell apart.
This season, they’ve been without so many other prime players, but they’ve got McCaffrey. He’s getting the ball on almost half of their plays, and they’re winning.
Even when they can’t run it, if Shanahan has No. 23, he can hotwire a short-passing game and keep things moving.
But aside from McCaffrey himself, I don’t think anybody inside 49ers HQ believes they can keep McCaffrey on pace for a ridiculous 442 touches this season. They need him on the field, but they don’t need him breaking to pieces on the field.
The returns of Kittle, Pearsall, Jennings, and eventually Brandon Aiyuk should expand Shanahan’s options and reduce at least some of the risk for McCaffrey — if those guys can stay healthy, too.
The defense has to start getting to the QB
Mykel Williams, Upton Stout, and Dee Winters have been solid all season. Alfred Collins made an epic play to force the fumble at the goal line on Thursday.
Yes, the 49ers are getting good production from several young defensive players and there’s every sign that they’ll all only get better.
Watch out for 2026, once again.
But Shanahan and Lynch went for it in 2019 and again in 2022 because those were great defenses with Bosa in his prime and because great defenses that can consistently rush the passer are hell on QBs.
This year, despite the bright spots and big last-minute moments, the 49ers are one of only two teams without an interception (other is the Jets). And they only have six sacks, tied for third fewest in the league. (Denver leads the league with 21.)
Wait: I can think of a way the 49ers could instantly charge up their pass rush and make opponent QBs very uncomfortable.
And I think Shanahan and Lynch would be very tempted to make a splashy trade to do it … if they start to see all the other signs of true playoff viability.