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When Christian McCaffrey returned to the field following an eight-game absence due to an Achilles injury last season, the 49ers still had every reason to believe they could make a deep playoff run.
When McCaffrey limped from the snowy field in Buffalo to the blue medical tent on the sideline and then to the visiting locker room in Orchard Park four weeks later, their season was over.
There are two players this iteration of the 49ers simply can’t win without: McCaffrey and star linebacker Fred Warner.
Quarterback Brock Purdy, tight end George Kittle, and pass rusher Nick Bosa probably also belong on the “irreplaceable” list, but the 49ers have managed to stay competitive for brief periods when each of those players has dealt with injuries. When McCaffrey was ruled out for the season last December, the 49ers lost their way.
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There’s no telling how this year’s team will respond to the dislocated and fractured ankle Warner suffered on Sunday in Tampa, but if the second half of a 30-19 defeat to the Bucs is any indication, it’s going to be a long few months.
Warner is more than a four-time All-Pro linebacker. He might be the most complete player in football as a sideline-to-sideline run stopper, an elite coverage defender, and the 49ers’ best turnover generator. The former third-round draft pick recently passed Patrick Willis for the franchise lead in forced fumbles, and his 10 career interceptions – a stat the 49ers’ defense hasn’t logged yet this season – are the most of any player on the roster.
The secret to Warner’s success isn’t much of a secret at all.
Since Kyle Shanahan arrived in San Francisco in 2017, no player has been more durable than Warner, who has started 121 of 122 of the team’s games since he was drafted. During an era in which injuries to key players have kept the 49ers from hitting their ceiling, Warner is the lone superstar who has stayed on the field and continued taking his game to new heights.
The ankle injury shouldn’t rob Warner of the chance to join the greatest players of his generation in the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day. His resume is already worthy of Canton.
It will, however, rob the 49ers of their greatest leader, a player whose presence likely made Shanahan and GM John Lynch more secure in overhauling their defense this offseason. No matter how many inexperienced players and rookies they had to integrate into the unit this season, at least they would have Warner there to soften the blow, ease the adjustment, and cover up the flaws of players around him.
On Sunday, all of that changed.
Warner’s injury will force the 49ers to recalibrate in ways they never expected. If all goes right, this team can still win a division and potentially a playoff game or two, but their greatest dreams are dashed.
Without McCaffrey, everyone saw how different and how unspectacular the 49ers’ offense looked last year. Without Warner, the 49ers immediately blew two coverages, losing track of backup receivers who had barely been on Baker Mayfield’s radar this season.
Now, they have 11 regular-season games left to figure out a solution. They’ll audition young players, test out different looks, and force defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to become more creative than he ever envisioned.
It might be fun, but much like the 49ers’ games without McCaffrey a season ago, it could get ugly. With Warner out of the mix, everything suddenly looks grim.