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Politics & Policy

With 40% of San Francisco ballots uncounted, here are the paths to victory

Attendees watch election results on screen at The Standard and Manny’s election night party at Manny’s on Nov. 8, 2022. | Juliana Yamada for The Standard

The SF Department of Elections announced this morning that 40% of San Francisco ballots remain uncounted, which means that there’s still plenty of room for movement in close races.

From here on in, it’s a slow bandage-ripping-off process as we’ll receive results every day at 4 p.m. from Thursday for likely a week.

For those of you biting your nails over a particular SF race, we’ve done the path to victory calculations for the most contested battles.

District 4

Board of Supervisors District 4 candidate Joel Engardio and Board of Education member Ann Hsu point at a monitor set up to view election results before the polls close on Nov. 8, 2022, at Noriega Teriyaki House. | Chris Victorio for The Standard

This tossup between challenger Joel Engardio and incumbent Gordon Mar is the closest candidate race, with Engardio leading by almost 4 points. Assuming voter turnout in the district remains in line with citywide turnout, Engardio needs to hang onto 48% of the remainder to win, and Mar needs to get 53% of the remainder to win.

Prop. D

Signs in favor of Prop D were hung and projected at Matt Dorsey’s election night party at Folsom Street Foundry on Nov. 8, 2022. | Juliana Yamada for The Standard

Prop. D is the housing measure that is backed by the YIMBY coalition, which speeds up certain types of apartment construction. It is currently losing, but only by about 1,000 votes. Prop. D will need to get 51% of the rest of the ballots to win.

Prop. E

Prop. E is the housing measure backed by the Board of Supervisors, which only speeds up below market-rate construction. It is currently losing, with 55% voting no. The rest of the ballots will need to move nearly 15 points in order for Prop. E to win. If 59% of the remaining ballots vote yes on Prop. E, then it will pass. Possible? Yes, but very unlikely.

Prop. M

Organizers with the Democratic Socialists of America and Faith in Action Bay Area gather on June 30, 2022 to celebrate having enough petition signatures to qualify for the ballot. | Camille Cohen/The Standard

Prop. M is another real estate measure sponsored by Supervisor Dean Preston, which seeks to tax vacant homes. It is currently winning with 53% voting yes. In order for it to flip the other way, the remainder would have to move about 8 points in the direction of voting no, so 45% or less of the remaining ballots would be voting yes on Prop. M.