Many tech industry observers are already glued to their phones for updates after the shocking firing of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman by the company’s board of directors.
There’s plenty of speculation (informed and otherwise) on what’s next, but startup Kalshi is betting that people are willing to put their money where their mouths are by gambling on the potential outcomes at the company once the dust settles.
Kalshi operates a marketplace that allows people to make wagers on specific events in the form of future contracts. Members can purchase contracts for “yes” or “no” outcomes that are priced based on how likely the event is to occur. Users can also purchase and sell contracts from others.
The platform currently lists a number of OpenAI-related events to wager on. One is whether OpenAI’s for-profit arm ends. Currently, pricing is firmly in favor of the “no” camp on that question.
Investors can also bet on whether OpenAI individual board members will be stepping down by the end of the year. Ilya Sutskever, Adam D’Angelo, Tasha McCauley and Helen Toner are all more likely than not to step down, according to the Kalshi’s markets, with Toner’s departure being priced at the highest out of the four, meaning investors think it’s most likely to happen.
The question of whether a new CEO is named at OpenAI is also being listed with investors firmly in favor of the “yes” position.
It’s also possible to wager on who OpenAI’s permanent CEO might be. Investors believe Sam Altman has the highest likelihood out of the four people listed on the platform, followed by current interim CEO Emmett Shear. Investors can also wager on Mira Murati, who was briefly named interim CEO, and Kyle Vogt, who just resigned from his position at Cruise.
At the time of publication, wagering $100 for Altman to become permanent CEO could mean up to $40 in profits.
Kevin Truong can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org