At least one of us (David) got most of his predictions right for the 49ers’ big victory over Seattle two Thursdays ago. Let’s see if both the 49ers and our predictions can get on a roll here leading into Sunday’s Super Bowl rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Purdy’s passer rating over 100
Lombardi: OVER
The Chiefs don’t have cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who’s now with the Tennessee Titans. That’s a big loss for a team that was able to neutralize the 49ers primarily with man-to-man coverage in the Super Bowl. Purdy’s targets should be operating with more space in this game, which can lead to an efficient afternoon. As always, maintaining a high rating is about avoiding interceptions.
Kawakami: OVER
This has been a perfect guidepost for Purdy — he’s had three games over 100 and three below and is at 100.5 for the season. The last one was a 129.3 barnstormer against the Seahawks. The Chiefs’ defense is much better than Seattle’s, but I’m guessing that Purdy will be at his best Sunday — and will lift this number far higher than the 89.3 rating he put up in the last Super Bowl.
49er with the most yards from scrimmage, rushing and receiving
Lombardi: GEORGE KITTLE
Kansas City doesn’t have strong linebackers in pass coverage. Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill have allowed 119 and 122.8 passer ratings into their coverages, respectively. The Chiefs rank No. 19 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) in covering tight ends, which is their worst split on the defensive side. Kittle, fresh off a two-touchdown game in Seattle, is a good pick here.
Kawakami: DEEBO SAMUEL
I hit this with Samuel last week, and I’m sticking with him for this one. He might not be targeted 11 times like he was in the Super Bowl, but I’m guessing he’ll get a lot more than the three catches for 33 yards he got in that game. I’ll guess at least one big run in this one, too.
49ers defensive player with the most big plays
We’re defining big plays as sacks + forced fumbles + fumble recoveries + interceptions.
Lombardi: NICK BOSA
Bosa was extremely close to game-breaking plays several times last week. He registered 14 pressures against the Seahawks, which tied his own mark from a 2022 game for the highest number logged by a defender in the past few seasons. Pressures are a good predictor of sacks.
Kawakami: FRED WARNER
We could pick Warner every week in this category (he had another forced fumble against the Seahawks, his NFL-leading fourth on the season). I think I might.
Non-star who makes a big splash
Lombardi: ISAAC GUERENDO
The rookie running back is clearly growing more comfortable running the ball. With Jordan Mason coming off a shoulder sprain, Guerendo may see his largest workload yet. The Chiefs defend outside-zone runs very well, but remember that Guerendo began his college career as a wide receiver. He can be a surprise threat in the pass game.
Kawakami: ERIC SAUBERT
The 49ers’ TE2 had four catches on five targets in the first three games but zero targets in the last three. It’s time for more Saubert. If Jauan Jennings misses this game, I can see Shanahan going with heavy packages, then trying to pop Saubert loose a few times with play-action fanciness.
Game prediction
Lombardi: Chiefs 27, 49ers 24
I think the 49ers will play a generally good game, but the Chiefs deserve the benefit of the doubt here until they finally lose to their top NFC rivals. Kansas City has again consistently won gritty battles this season. Can the 49ers reverse that trend? It’s a great opportunity to turbocharge their season. Let’s see if they prove me wrong.
Kawakami: 49ers 27, Chiefs 24
The Seattle game was essentially a must-win inside the division. This one isn’t quite as urgent for the 49ers, except for their pride and self-esteem. The Chiefs are coming off a bye and are always prepared to rattle off three or four scores in a row to pull out a victory. But the 49ers should have the energy to — finally — close out a victory against Mahomes & Co., maybe with a takeaway at the end.