With the deadline fast approaching for San Francisco to submit a plan to create tens of thousands of housing units, Mayor Daniel Lurie will soon have to plant a flag in the ground on one of the city’s most contentious issues.
A new version of the state-mandated rezoning plan is set to drop this spring, and the city has until January to send it to Sacramento, setting up a potential skirmish of neighborhood preservationists and anti-displacement activists versus pro-development and YIMBY forces.
The debate could mark a political test for Lurie, who expressed support for housing on the campaign trail but has said little about the rezoning effort since. Pro-housing advocates have flagged political liabilities for the mayor should he decide to seek a second term.
In a Jan. 31 meeting memo, Ned Segal, Lurie’s housing and economic development policy chief, informed the mayor that “YIMBY groups now warn of legal and political risks of a too-timid approach in the rezoning currently underway.”
The memo explains that the city must issue permits for 29,049 housing units by 2027; the clock started ticking in 2023. If the city does not meet that goal, it could be forced to commit to more rezoning.
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“A decision does not need to be made in this [Jan. 31] meeting but in the near future the planning department will need direction from YOUR office,” the memo states.
It seems unlikely the city will meet that target: San Francisco has issued permits for 4,307 housing units since 2023, according to the Planning Department.
This month, the mayor announced a task force to speed up the permitting system — but the high cost of materials and labor have made it extremely difficult to build anything in the city, said Corey Smith, executive director of the Housing Action Coalition.
“Nobody is applying to build housing projects right now,” Smith said. “When they pencil it out, they lose money. Investors are not about losing money.”
The city could avoid retriggering a rezoning if the plans that are currently under development accommodate more housing units than is required under state law, according to Chris Elmendorf, a University of California at Davis law professor specializing in housing policy.
“If the rezoning creates a lot more capacity than the minimum required, then the circuit breaker wouldn’t be triggered at all,” he explained, referring to the penalty that requires the city to go back and rezone.
Jane Natoli, the San Francisco organizing director for YIMBY Action, said if rezoning occurs, it would happen right around the time Lurie’s first term ends. “Do you really want to be rezoning again in two years if you’re running for reelection?” she asked. “Do you want to have this conversation again in a couple of years or not?”
Natoli said she and other YIMBY members are advocating for greater density along Van Ness Avenue, stretches of Geary Boulevard, west of Masonic Avenue, and elsewhere.
A spokesperson for the mayor did not respond to a request for comment.
While on the campaign trail, Lurie generally expressed support for more housing, calling for mid-rise development along main city corridors, near transit, and on corner lots. Meanwhile, a significant chunk of Lurie’s base comes from the city’s west side, where new housing developments often face opposition.
Matt Boschetto, a former District 7 supervisor candidate and Lurie supporter, said residents in the west side are “holding their breath” to see how the mayor approaches the rezoning matter.
“I think he’s going to be in a very precarious place to make a decision,” he said. “If he continues on the same trajectory as London Breed, it is going to upset a lot of people.”
Development skeptics are organizing ahead of the rezoning, calling on officials to focus on affordable housing and preserving tenant protections. In a February letter to city officials, the Council of Community Housing Organizations and others called for any rezoning to allow for 100% affordable housing projects.
“We can have better neighborhoods with our same neighbors,” Amalia Macias-Laventure, a member of the San Francisco Anti-Displacement Coalition, said during a Thursday press conference.
Lori Brooke, who leads the neighborhood preservationist group United Neighborhoods SF, said the mayor will be challenged as he balances the wants and needs of his voter base.
“During a campaign, it’s easy to discuss housing in broad, high-level terms,” she said. “But when the rubber meets the road, decisions must be made, ones that prioritize residents and small businesses from displacement.”