What stands in the way of a Valkyries playoff berth? Here are two factors

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Coach Natalie Nakase and the Golden State Valkyries are no doubt relieved to put their most grueling scheduling segment of the season — a six-game, 10-day stretch — behind them. But that doesn’t mean the tests to their resilience are letting up.

Back on their home court at Chase Center for the first time in more than a week, the Valkyries dropped a second consecutive game to the Las Vegas Aces. The 78-72 defeat left the team below .500, at 14-15. While Golden State remains in a playoff position, sitting eighth in the league standings, the road ahead offers little margin for error — and plenty more challenges. 

Golden State’s 24-point loss to Vegas last Sunday that capped off their week on the road could largely be attributed to the absence of key personnel. Starters Cecilia Zandalasini and Tiffany Hayes were sidelined with injuries, compounding depth issues for a depleted rotation that’s also without Kayla Thornton (season-ending right knee injury) and Monique Billings (out at least three weeks with a right ankle injury). To top it off, Janelle Salaün — one of the Valkyries’ primary scoring threats — was ejected in the second quarter following a flagrant 2 foul, leaving the team scrambling without five core contributors. 

But it was Wednesday’s rematch loss that turned out to be the more frustrating for Golden State. Despite adjustments made in the three-day turnaround and a handful of promising sequences, offensive inconsistency was a defining trait in the Valkyries’ six-point loss in front of another sellout crowd at Chase Center. 

“I’m fine with our girls playing their hearts out tonight, and if they are frustrated, great,” Nakase said postgame. “Because I’m a little frustrated, too.”

Golden State corrected Sunday’s sluggish start with a competitive first quarter. The Valkyries then opened the second with a 7-0 run in 90 seconds to take a five-point lead. Hayes looked shifty in isolation, Zandalasini drained a signature midrange turnaround jumper, and rookie Carla Leite provided her usual boost off the bench. As a bonus, newcomer Kaila Charles, who signed a seven-day hardship contract Friday, made an immediate impact and fit right in with a bucket on her first possession. But the Valkyries couldn’t put together a complete performance. 

Momentum shifted sharply in the third quarter as A’ja Wilson, who finished with a game-high 27 points on an efficient 8-of-11 from the field, and the Aces built a lead that stretched out as large as 10 points. Though Golden State made threatening punches in the final frame and battled through the buzzer, the game never truly felt within reach thereafter, despite the Valkyries whittling the deficit to as little as four points. 

After the loss, a disappointed Nakase pointed a finger at the officiating down the stretch, as she’s done at least three prior occasions this season.

“The game ended up coming down to six points, and in terms of free throws, it also matters when fouls are getting called. So if the Aces are shooting 16% in the fourth quarter and they are getting five more free throws [than us], that’s very convenient,” Nakase said of the Aces’ 14 free-throw attempts in the fourth quarter. “The consistency of the calls are not the same.”

If uneven officiating is a problem, it's one that's all over the league. For everyone. But the loss didn’t just come down to missed opportunities (or calls) in the second half — it points to a lingering weakness in the Valkyries’ offense. 

Since day one, Nakase has preached one message when it comes to her team’s perimeter shooting: “Let it fly.” That’s been the cornerstone of the Valkyries’ offensive identity, as the expansion franchise continues to lead the league in three-point attempts per game, though not in efficiency. 

When shots are falling, the results validate the approach. Last week’s three-game road win streak saw the Valkyries catch fire from three-point range, with 10 or more triples in each game. 

But in Wednesday’s six-point loss, Golden State went cold from deep, shooting just 4-of-22 from beyond the arc — one of its worst showings of the season. Without the perimeter punch, the Valkyries’ offense tends to unravel. On the season, they average the fewest points in the paint per game and rank second-to-last in the league in field goal attempts within five feet. So without the boost of the three-ball, the team managed just nine assists, a season low, as ball movement stalled and possessions shifted into isolation-heavy play. 

This brings up two key questions that loom large as the season progresses: At what point are three-pointers a fallback and not a tactical strength? And who are the Valkyries when their three-point shots aren’t falling?

For a first-year team that has exceeded expectations and established a strong defensive identity, these questions don't have to be answered right away. If Golden State wants to keep leaning into the three-point shot, that’s not inherently a problem. Sometimes it will go their way. But with a playoff push hanging in the balance, every game carries weight — and the Valkyries simply can’t afford cold shooting nights, because right now, when the three isn’t falling, there’s no clear Plan B. 

Iliana Rupert, who was a midseason addition to the unit from France, is not your traditional post player as a 6-foot-4 center. She stretches the floor and is a weapon on the perimeter (15 made threes in her seven games), but so much that she rarely creates shots for herself inside the paint. Her offensive impact so far has appeared one-dimensional as she’s struggled to contribute when her outside shot is not falling. 

That said, Golden State is not without its bright spots heading into the final month of the season. Among them is the roster’s depth — on any given night, any player can step up and take on the offensive load. In the seven games since Thornton’s season-ending injury, the Valkyries (4-3 in that stretch) have been led in scoring by five different players. 

Now, Golden State needs someone to step up Saturday for the team’s first meeting with the Sparks since early June. Los Angeles is on a hot streak, winning eight of its last 10 — and just welcomed back former Stanford standout Cameron Brink from a year-long injury rehab. The stakes are high for the playoff-hopeful Valkyries; they sit just a slim 0.5 game ahead of the Sparks for the final postseason seed.