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49ers vs. Saints: The Standard's 5 fast predictions

With Mac Jones expected to start in place of Brock Purdy, the 49ers could rely heavily on Christian McCaffrey to jumpstart their offense in New Orleans.

Robert Saleh (left) helped the 49ers' defense shut down Sam Darnold and the Seahawks while Kyle Shanahan will have to work with his backup QB to beat the Saints. | Source: Howard Lao for The Standard

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It's Week 2 and the 49ers are already set to rely on a new quarterback, a new starting tight end, and a new kicker on Sunday in New Orleans.

Brock Purdy could miss multiple weeks with a toe injury, George Kittle won't play until at least Week 6 due to a hamstring strain, and Jake Moody was cut after missing a 27-yard chip shot on his first field goal attempt of the season.

Aside from a slew of significant personnel changes, what else should 49ers fans expect in New Orleans? The Standard’s Tim Kawakami and David Lombardi are back with their Fast 5 predictions ahead of the 49ers' matchup against the Saints.

Offensive star of the game

Kawakami: Eddy Piñeiro. OK, obviously Jones will have all eyes on him as he steps in for Purdy. And of course Christian McCaffrey might be even more of a central focus with all the absences. But with yards and points at a premium, probably on both sides, I'll guess that the new kicker will have several chances to make a big impact on this game and maybe on a lot of games. And I think Pineiro will be up for it.

Lombardi: McCaffrey. New Orleans was the NFL's second-worst run defense in 2024. It didn't show much improvement last week, as the Arizona Cardinals racked up 146 yards on 5.4 yards per carry against the Saints. The 49ers struggled to run against Seattle's imposing defense, but this Sunday will be different – and it needs to be with Purdy not playing.

Defensive star of the game

Kawakami: Nick Bosa. I didn't pick him last game (wrongly, it turns out) to save him for this one. The Saints are bad. Spencer Rattler should be a prime target. I'm guessing two sacks and several big run stops for Bosa, mostly because the 49ers will really need all of it.

Lombardi: Fred Warner. We're witnessing greatness here. Warner was bleeding from the face and he felt like vomiting last week after taking a spike to the stomach, but he was back in the game within minutes. And Warner was his usual Superman self. A young quarterback like Rattler is very vulnerable to a Warner takeaway, especially because the Saints love working to their top running back (Alvin Kamara) and top tight end (Juwan Johnson).

Fred Warner was a force on Sunday against Seattle despite missing a portion of the game. | Source: Howard lao

The 49ers' potential X-factor

Kawakami: Brian Robinson Jr. OR Isaac Guerendo. McCaffrey probably will get another 30 touches or so in this game after his total was 31 last weekend. But the 49ers are going to need at least one more playmaker. Maybe it'll be Robinson. But he wasn't great in Seattle, so maybe Guerendo will get a shot to reverse his recent tumble down the depth chart.

Lombardi: Piñeiro. The 49ers won despite the league's most putrid special teams performance last week. They lost 11.2 expected points in that phase of the game — so it essentially turned what could've been a blowout win into a near-loss. Well, Moody is gone, so the entire special teams unit has been overhauled. With the 49ers' margins likely thinner minus Purdy and Kittle, it's time for that third phase to finally deliver. Piñeiro can become the face of a much-needed new 49ers special teams era.

The key stat to track

Kawakami: Rattler pass attempts. The 49ers want this number to get as high as possible Rattler threw it 46 times in last Sunday's loss to Arizona and averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt. If he throws it 40 or more this Sunday, there could be interceptions. Sacks. Fumbles. Three-and-outs. And everything the 49ers need to make sure their QB doesn't need to throw it much at all.

Lombardi: Yards per rush. I picked this stat for the 49ers' defense last week. They absolutely delivered, holding Seattle to just 3.2 yards per rush. This time, I'm picking it for the 49ers' offense. At a bare minimum, Shanahan's offensive line needs to jell to the tune of 4.0 yards per carry. But even that might be an alarmingly low output considering the Saints' defensive struggles. Maybe 4.5 yards per carry should be the target number.

A man in a sleeveless white shirt and a white and red cap stands at a podium speaking, with a backdrop of San Francisco 49ers and sponsor logos.
Running back Christian McCaffrey will take on an even bigger offensive load with Brock Purdy and George Kittle sidelined. | Source: Morgan Ellis/The Standard

Game prediction

Kawakami: 49ers 13, Saints 10. Getting out of New Orleans relatively healthy would be almost as important to the 49ers as getting to 2-0. I won't predict full health in this one (or ever), but I'll guess that the 49ers' defense can control the game and give Jones a few short fields. From there, it might be up to Piñeiro.

Lombardi: 49ers 20, Saints 14. The 49ers upgraded QB2 by signing Jones for this very reason. It's actually rare for any NFL first-string quarterback to start every game of the season. The backup must deliver enough in a pinch. And Jones should have enough at his disposal to succeed against the Saints. This game does feel like a hinge point, especially if Purdy misses a couple more games beyond it: A win in New Orleans would only require the 49ers to split the subsequent two-game homestand for a 3-1 September. They'd certainly take that.

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David Lombardi can be reached at [email protected]
Tim Kawakami can be reached at [email protected]