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For the first time since Week 1, Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall were both full participants in practice on Wednesday.
That’s it. That’s the formula for the 49ers to reach the playoffs.
Well, not all of it, of course. But Purdy’s triumphant return this past week against the Arizona Cardinals — punctuated by the fact that he successfully avoided aggravating his toe injury — combined with Pearsall’s ongoing reintegration into the lineup translates to huge expectations for the 49ers’ offense moving forward.
For good reason. The 49ers (7-4) already managed 41 points on Sunday without heavy involvement from Pearsall, who was returning from a knee injury. He caught only one pass for no gain. Assuming Pearsall’s role grows — and a look at tight end George Kittle’s trajectory returning from injury last month suggests that it will — the 49ers will add a novel downfield dynamic to their already-productive offense.
“I thought Ricky was awesome last week,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said Wednesday, referring to Pearsall’s play away from the ball, “and I expect him to be the same — if not better — this week.”
Just look at how much farther downfield Pearsall has been relative to other 49ers’ targets when the ball has gone his way.
Pearsall’s average depth of target, 15.6 yards, projects to be a necessary addition if the 49ers are going to make Sunday’s outburst in the desert a regular occurrence over their final seven games. Field-stretching production from Pearsall would translate into more space for Purdy’s other eligible targets. The 49ers currently rank No. 24 in average separation at the time of catch or incompletion, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
And improving that, in turn, projects to be the biggest key for the 49ers to reach the playoffs. With a very injured defense hanging on by a thread, the 49ers know they’ll need their offense to lead the way at the highest efficiency clip possible.
The next test, a Monday Night Football tilt against the Carolina Panthers (6-5), looms particularly large. If the 49ers win, they’ll have an 89% chance to make the playoffs. If they lose, that probability drops to 62%.
The large 27% swing is due in part to Carolina’s surprisingly successful season. The Panthers have not posted impressive advanced metrics (they rank No. 26 in DVOA), but an upset win over the 49ers could thrust them right inside the projected playoff picture.
If the season ended today, the 49ers would be the seventh and final NFC playoff qualifier. Here is the pecking order at the moment:
1. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-2
2. Los Angeles Rams: 8-2
3. Chicago Bears: 7-3
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-4
5. Seattle Seahawks: 7-3
6. Green Bay Packers: 6-3-1
7: 49ers: 7-4
The Detroit Lions (6-4) and Panthers (6-5) are right behind the 49ers, who still have games against the Bears (Dec. 4) and Seahawks (Jan. 4) remaining in the regular season.
Wins in either of those two games, because they could factor strongly into the NFC tiebreaker formula, would be massive for the 49ers’ chances. But both teams and the AFC’s Indianapolis Colts, whom the 49ers play on Dec. 22, might be favored when those matchups arrive.
At the very least, they won’t be large underdogs like the 49ers’ next three opponents: the Panthers, the Cleveland Browns, and the Tennessee Titans. With wins likely hard to come by over the final three weeks of the season, it’s imperative that the 49ers take care of business while they’re heavy favorites now.
Their biggest challenge against Carolina will come on defense. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is fresh off a 448-yard performance against the Atlanta Falcons. His favorite target was 6-foot-4 rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who caught eight passes for 130 yards working out of the slot — where the 49ers line up 5-foot-8 rookie nickelback Upton Stout.
“I think he’s a stud,” Shanahan said of McMillan. “He’s going to be one of the best receivers in this league sooner than later. He’s got all the skill sets to do it.”
Shanahan said McMillan caught the 49ers’ eye “big time” in the pre-draft process, but the Panthers picked him at No. 8 overall — three spots ahead of San Francisco’s top selection, which was spent on edge rusher Mykel Williams.
The 49ers’ run defense, which has been a relative strength for them on that side of the ball (they rank No. 11 in EPA/play against the run), will also be tested. Carolina’s ground attack ranks No. 12 and starter Rico Dowdle, with 833 yards on 5.0 yards per carry, is on his way to a career year.
Monday’s cast of characters will be wildly different than the last time the 49ers played the Panthers in 2022. They beat Carolina, featuring quarterback Baker Mayfield and running back Christian McCaffrey, 37-15 in October of that season.
The fallout of that game was staggering: The Panthers, who dropped to 1-4 with the loss, fired head coach Matt Rhule the day after. And less than two weeks later, they committed to a full rebuild and traded McCaffrey to the 49ers.
“We knew trading for him that we were getting an extremely special player,” Shanahan said. “But, I still would say he exceeded expectations. You know how good he is off of film, but once you get to work with someone and really see what makes him so good, you realize that he’s even better than you thought.”
McCaffrey currently leads the NFL with 1,439 yards from scrimmage. He’s on pace to become the first player ever to twice notch 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in a single season.
And yes, he’s also an integral part of that 49ers’ playoff formula — just like Purdy and Pearsall.
In fact, the biggest spotlight as the 49ers take their next pivotal step toward the postseason on Monday will probably be on McCaffrey.
“Getting traded to San Francisco, it opened my eyes to so much,” McCaffrey said Wednesday. “It was a massive blessing, but it was also a bittersweet moment for me at the time. … But when I look back on my journey and look back on what’s transpired since then, I can’t help but be so grateful to also call this place home and play with so many amazing players.”