Want more ways to catch up on the latest in Bay Area sports? Sign up for the Section 415 email newsletter here and subscribe to the Section 415 podcast wherever you listen.
Christian McCaffrey spent the first five-plus years of his career with the Carolina Panthers, where he played in exactly one postseason game.
After a 2022 trade to the 49ers, McCaffrey has made six more playoff appearances and is looking to add to that total this season. A win over his former team would go a long way toward helping that cause.
The Panthers, like every 49ers opponent, know to key in on McCaffrey. Fortunately for McCaffrey, he’ll have plenty of help as Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall will start for the second consecutive week.
What should fans expect from a Monday Night Football matchup with major playoff implications? Here are our predictions.
Offensive star of the game
Kawakami: Jauan Jennings. I’ll veer away from the obvious pick and go with somebody who might take advantage of the Panthers’ potential very specific focus on making sure McCaffrey doesn’t go nuts on Monday. And Jennings has been looking a lot healthier lately than earlier in the season.
Lombardi: McCaffrey. Well, I’m going for the obvious pick. Sue me. But the story just aligns too well: McCaffrey’s first NFL game with Carolina against the 49ers in 2017. That was Kyle Shanahan’s first game as the 49ers’ coach. Over eight years later, McCaffrey will roast the Panthers — this time playing on Shanahan’s team.
Defensive star of the game
Kawakami: Curtis Robinson. When you’re down to your third-string middle linebacker, who knows what kind of defensive chaos might ensue. I’m sure the Panthers and Rico Dowdle are eager to find out. But the 49ers have kept Robinson around because he can call the signals and do a reasonable-but-lesser facsimile of the guy who was doing a reasonable-but-lesser facsimile of Fred Warner.
Lombardi: Deommodore Lenoir. He’s the last standing foundational pillar of the 49ers’ defense, and he delivered a timely interception in last week’s win over Arizona. The 49ers’ formula will have to remain rooted in opportunism, and that means Lenoir will have the chance to make another big takeaway.
The 49ers’ potential X-factor
Kawakami: Has Brant Boyer really fixed the special teams? Big kick returns. Solid coverage. Blocking/tipping opponent kicks. And we’ll see how Matt Gay does temporarily replacing Eddy Piñeiro If we can just assume a weekly 49ers special-teams advantage — instead of the massive disadvantage they gave up in recent years — that’s something like a four- or five-point swing every game. Sometimes much more than that.
Lombardi: Who covers Tetairoa McMillan in the slot? The 6-foot-4 Panthers receiver scorched Atlanta for 130 yards last week working primarily out of the slot. The 49ers’ nickelback is 5-foot-8 rookie Upton Stout, so Carolina would have a size mismatch in that potential one-on-one matchup. Will the 49ers double-team McMillan with Stout and a taller safety? Or will Lenoir reprise his 2024 role when he shifted inside in key nickel situations?
The key stat to track
Kawakami: Brock Purdy yards per pass attempt. The 49ers probably don’t need a huge number here to win this game, but when they’re really clicking, Purdy is getting the ball down field. He’s at 7.9 yards per attempt so far this season, which is higher than Mac Jones’ 7.4 and seventh among qualified NFL QBs; but it’s not near Purdy’s 8.8 career mark.
Lombardi: Turnover differential. The 49ers finished plus-3 against the Cardinals, moving to minus-5 on the season. That number needs to move into the positives for the 49ers to make a true run. If Purdy continues taking care of the football and if Robert Saleh’s defense is armed with a lead and positioned to pounce, the 49ers should again win this very key statistic.
Game prediction
Kawakami: 49ers 30, Panthers 20. Is this the right moment for back-to-back 49ers victories for the first time since Weeks 2-3? Yup, that’s my call after their alternating W-L pattern over the last nine weeks. I hope this doesn’t also mean the end of my six-game streak of calling these games correctly. Though Bryce Young and Dowdle probably will do some damage, I just don’t see Carolina’s middle-rung defense doing much to stop Purdy, McCaffrey & Co. from putting this one out of reach.
Lombardi: 49ers 34, Panthers 23. The offensive renaissance is here to stay and Carolina simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the 49ers. Even though the Panthers are 6-5, they rank No. 24 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). This over-performance will not continue against the buzzsaw that is a healthy 49ers’ offense.
