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The 49ers are sitting in the 14th slot in the 2025 draft order, with a shot at getting into the top 12 (especially if they lose Sunday to the 4-8 Bears). That might be a nice chance to pick up that prime right tackle they could use. Or a plug-and-play pass rusher. Or a star receiver who can actually get open against man-to-man coverage.
There’s more: Presuming they don’t win out and take the NFC West, the 49ers are going to avoid a first-place schedule next season. Their first-place schedule this season set them up against the Chiefs, while the Rams and their second-place schedule got the Raiders. If the 49ers finish fourth in the NFC West this season, in 2025 they’d be lined up against the Bears (currently in fourth place in the NFC North), Giants (NFC East), and Browns (AFC North). The first-place NFC West finisher, in contrast, would at the moment be set to play the Lions, Eagles, and Steelers in this rotation. Sliiiight difference.
Remind you of any previous Shanahan season? It should. After the 49ers finished third in 2021, they gobbled up their third-place schedule in 2022 on their way to a 10-game winning streak to close the regular season, a 13-4 record, and the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
Lynch and Shanahan came into this together, and there’s been no visible evidence of a split developing. They remain friends, and they continue to rely on each other. I think Lynch, who has plenty of other career options, would exit the franchise if York soured on Shanahan.
So then York would have to go on a GM search, too.
The 49ers announced a “multi-year” extension for both Shanahan and Lynch in September 2023, which probably pushed Shanahan’s deal to 2027 (or beyond) and upped his salary to around $15 million a year. That’d be a lot of cash for York to eat now, next year, or even two years from now.
The new deal almost certainly has offsets that would cut down York’s outlay if Shanahan gets another job in football (and maybe even broadcasting), but York would probably still be on the hook for big money if he fires Shanahan in January. And in that scenario, Shanahan would have his choice of head-coaching jobs. For instance, even with offsets, York could be paying a fired Shanahan upward of $8 million a year to coach for somebody else — possibly against the 49ers — while also paying for a new 49ers coach. I find it difficult to believe that York would enjoy contemplating any of that.
Only four active coaches have more career playoff wins than Shanahan: Andy Reid (26), John Harbaugh (12), Mike McCarthy (11), and Sean Payton (9). And Shanahan’s .667 playoff winning percentage is better than all of them.
I mean, come on, what are we talking about here?
Tim Kawakami can be reached at tkawakami@sfstandard.com