Gavin Newsom’s presidential ambitions engulfed by Los Angeles fires

Gavin Newsom’s biggest political crises are usually self-inflicted: an affair during his first term as San Francisco mayor, a fancy pandemic dinner party as governor. 

In both instances, Newsom not only survived — he emerged emboldened.

But the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles, which continue to burn after killing at least 24 people and destroying more than 12,000 homes and other structures, have struck a nerve that could have fallout for Newsom’s political future. Many expect him to launch a presidential campaign after serving out his final two years in the governor’s office, and his handling of the ongoing disaster is receiving a torrent of criticism from affected residents as well as political opponents on the right.

President-elect Donald Trump — less than a week from taking office and having the power to potentially withhold federal disaster relief — coined a pejorative nickname for the governor in a social media post, saying “Newscum” refused to sign a water restoration declaration that could have prevented the fires. Newsom fired back that the claim was “pure fiction.”

Meanwhile, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and CEO of X, used his substantial social media megaphone to parrot Trump’s talking points, leading Newsom to fire back with his own video accusing Musk of spreading lies.

The complexities of state budget allocations and water management have often taken a backseat to viral moments like a woman chasing Newsom down in a disaster zone to question the state’s response. Unlike planned interviews in which he gesticulates and tallies off talking points in front of smoldering ruins, Newsom appeared helpless during the impromptu exchange, saying he was trying to call President Joe Biden but didn’t have cell service.

Talk of another recall for Newsom and for Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, who could be particularly vulnerable after flying out of the country days before the fires, is gaining steam in Republican circles.

“It’s not if, it’s when and who,” said Anne Dunsmore, a campaign fundraiser who led the 2021 recall effort against Newsom and launched another last year. 

“I think Newsom is history whether we recall him or not,” she added. “But a recall can show the country that this guy destroyed the state, and you need to know that before you even consider him as an option as president. That dream needs to go away.”

A gubernatorial recall would require roughly 1.3 million signatures to qualify and likely cost tens of millions. Dunsmore acknowledged it may be Republicans’ only path to winning the governor’s office in deep-blue California. 

But fallout from the fires could substantially hinder Newsom’s presidential ambitions, which have been on display since he defeated the 2021 recall effort and utilized tens of millions in leftover campaign money to elevate his political profile.

Kate Maeder, a state and national political consultant at KMM Strategies, said the wildfires are a reminder that “every city in America needs to examine their infrastructure for our grim climate realities.” But a more difficult proposition, she added, is how Newsom will combat misinformation while making sure he doesn’t come off as defensive.

“He is navigating these troubled waters obviously with an eye on how this affects the presidential run,” Maeder said. “He’s always going to have a California problem when he’s running nationally. He’s very smart and cunning, and he knows how to navigate this wildfire situation. Running for president could be an impossible task for him because there is so much he has to own that will not serve him well in other states across the country.

“If I had to put money on it, I think Newsom comes out net-neutral,” she added. “He might not be a hero, but I don’t think this is going to spur another recall.”

Jim Ross, a consultant who ran Newsom’s first mayoral campaign, likened the governor’s balancing of present and future concerns to a 3D game of chess. Newsom needs to satisfy affected residents of Pacific Palisades and Malibu — a donor class he would absolutely court in a presidential bid — while focusing on larger messaging to all of California and the nation, Ross said. Looming over these two tasks, he added, is the question of how long the disaster will persist as a global storyline, as strong winds are expected to return this week, which could exacerbate the fires.

“The thing about presidential campaigns is you never can tell what’s going to be the thing that’s determinative, and it’s usually not the thing that you expect it to be — especially at this stage,” Ross said. “This is the stage where most candidates lose their campaign — they don’t get to a primary or a debate stage or even opening a committee. This is kind of a culling of candidates that happens over the next three years, and we’re in the first stage of that culling.”