It’s nearly a foregone conclusion that Democrats will rally around Kamala Harris as their preferred candidate for California governor in the 2026 election. She’ll announce whether she’s running by the end of the summer, and a decision in the affirmative would likely clear a field of relatively meh candidates.
Antonio Villaraigosa. Eleni Kounalakis. Katie Porter. Xavier Becerra. (Feel free to take a break from reading if you’re too fired up and ready to go.)
But the prospect of Harris running for governor on the heels of last year’s deflating defeat to Donald Trump is eliciting groans among some Democratic insiders and campaign experts, as well as voters. Harris — a former San Francisco district attorney, California attorney general, U.S. senator, and vice president — may have top-shelf name recognition in deep-blue California, where almost half of voters are registered Democrats, but she also has significant vulnerabilities.
Campaign experts note that many voters will feel numb about backing Harris again after last year’s loss. She has had a spotty electoral record at other points in her career, from a narrow victory in her first attorney general race, in 2010, to not even making it to the 2020 presidential primary in California. Her inability to distance herself from President Joe Biden could repeat itself with Gov. Gavin Newsom, a political ally and friend who is seen by a majority of California voters as prioritizing his own ambitions over the needs of the state.
Jason McDaniel, a professor of political science at San Francisco State University, notes that Harris got 59% of the vote in California in last year’s presidential election and should be seen as the strongest Democratic candidate. But he cautioned that this level of support shouldn’t be taken for granted in a governor’s race.
“If one party dominates politics in California for this long, it’s bound to end sometime,” McDaniel said. “Harris has some vulnerabilities, so it’s not going to be a cakewalk. If the economy is in the tank, who knows?”
“Some vulnerabilities” may be putting it mildly. A poll last month by Emerson College found that 31% of likely voters would support Harris if she enters the governor’s race, a number far higher than any other candidate, but half of those polled would prefer she not run. Another poll last month, by Politico and UC Berkeley’s Citrin Center, found that 47% of independent voters were either irritated or felt “hopeless” about her possible candidacy.
A state political consultant with two decades of experience, who requested anonymity to speak freely, stressed that if Harris does get into the mix, Democrats must not be seen as anointing her in the way she took over the presidential ticket when Biden stepped down last summer.
As governor, Harris would inherit numerous crises to which there are no easy answers. More than 187,000 people in California are in need of housing, and many of them suffer from addiction and mental health issues. Meanwhile, the insurance industry is cratering due to climate change and deadly wildfires, the cost of living is higher than almost anywhere in the country, and the public school systems are a mess.
“I don’t know what her message would be around California,” the consultant said. “I don’t think it’s enough to be ‘We’re the resistance to Trump.’ She’s gotta have an economic message, a message around schools and housing. Something that’s more detailed than just generalities. Things are moving in such a wrong direction in the state, and people are looking for someone who has a plan to turn this around.”
Nevertheless, some observers are calling the game in Harris’ favor before the first quarter has even started. A gubernatorial candidate event Monday in Sacramento led to this takeaway regarding Harris from San Francisco Chronicle columnist Joe Garofoli: “Relax and enjoy your time off. You can win this thing no matter when you decide to jump into the race.”
Jessica Levinson, a Loyola Law School professor who specializes in politics, agreed that Harris is the presumptive favorite, and anyone “with an ‘R’ next to their name” has little chance of winning the governor’s race. Republicans make up just over 25% of registered voters in California, and the party hasn’t controlled the governor’s office since Arnold Schwarzenegger termed out in 2011.
“But things are changing so quickly right now,” Levinson said. “Anybody who says, ‘I know exactly what the mood of voters is going to be for the midterms,’ I mean, I’d love to play the lottery with them.”
A Harris campaign in a jungle primary — where the top two vote-getters advance to the runoff in November, regardless of party — would virtually guarantee a Republican challenger. The most likely candidates are Steve Hilton, a former adviser to UK Prime Minister David Cameron and Fox News host who has deep ties to Silicon Valley tech, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a mustachioed, tough-on-crime Trump supporter. Hilton, whose English accent could score IQ points in the ears of many California voters, is practically itching to go head-to-head with Harris.
“I would be delighted if the Democrat machine decides that she’s their candidate, because I think that she’s probably the easiest to beat of all of them,” he said.
Hilton said Monday’s candidate forum, which was sponsored by the state’s labor unions, was an example of the “Democrat industrial complex.” He has repeatedly blamed Newsom for California’s ills and released hundreds of pages of policy papers that would take a DOGE/Project 2025 hatchet to state bureaucracy and regulatory policies. Hilton will absolutely be dragged for his support of Trump, whose polling has tanked in recent months, but he noted that the current president isn’t responsible for California’s high poverty and unemployment rates and steep housing and energy costs.
“California is now indisputably the worst-run state in America,” Hilton said. “For the first time in a long time, the Democrats will face a serious candidate with an energized movement for change. They don’t know what it’s like, and they’re in for a shock.”
The consultant who questioned Harris’ plans for California cautioned that Democrats should not overlook Hilton, whose support from deep-pocketed tech backers could provide a lane to victory.
“I think Hilton will do better because our alternative is potentially Kamala Harris, and people are gonna be like, ‘Ugh, I don’t want to do this again,’” the source said.
A source close to Harris said she will weigh her future in the coming months and potentially develop a set of policy platforms that show her commitment to California isn’t solely about cementing her political legacy.
David Latterman, a political analyst in San Francisco, said Harris’ track record in California shows she’s “a proven winner,” and her vision for the country was especially popular with state Democrats in 2024. The same could be true in a governor’s race, assuming she joins the crowded field.
“And if anybody comes up with any good ideas,” Latterman said, “Kamala can steal them.”