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SF to lose jobs, income as Trump tariffs bite 

While the city will fare better than the rest of the country, it’s expected to shed jobs and income over the next 20 years. 

President Donald Trump’s tariffs could have a significant impact on the city over decades. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | Source: Getty Images

San Francisco has its first concrete sense of how President Donald Trump’s tariffs could affect the city in the long term — and it’s not pretty. 

San Francisco’s Office of Economic Analysis crunched the numbers to estimate the effect the tariffs — if they’re upheld by the Supreme Court and barring any response from the Federal Reserve — could have on the economy over the next 20 years. 

In short, the city will lose jobs, and workers will have less disposable income as tariffs drive sustained price increases on many goods. 

Nearly every industry in SF will likely shed jobs, according to the analysis, which the Controller’s Office began working on in April. The job losses will be mainly attributable to reduced investment and demand driven by higher prices for just about everything. The business and professional services industry — including most tech jobs — will be hit hardest, followed by trade and transportation, which includes wholesalers and truck drivers. In total, the city is expected to lose nearly 18,000 jobs by 2045. 

Manufacturing gains nearly 5,500 jobs; Business & Professional Services loses about 6,000 jobs; other industries mostly lose between 500 and 3,000 jobs.
Tariffs are projected to spur the greatest job losses in business and professional services. | Source: Courtesy of the Office of the Controller

Meanwhile, disposable income for San Franciscans will shrink. In the next two decades, the impact of tariffs is expected to reduce personal spending power by an average of 3.7%, about $5,600 per capita. 

“It’s not that people will have less cash; it's that everything will be more expensive,” said Ted Egan, the city’s chief economist. 

San Francisco shows a smaller negative impact on disposable income than the rest of California and the U.S., with all three improving from 2025 to 2045 but remaining below baseline.
The impact of tariffs is expected to reduce personal spending power by an average of 3.7% over the next two decades. | Source: Courtesy of the Office of the Controller

There is a silver lining: SF and California on the whole will fare better than the rest of the country due to being a hub of technology manufacturing. As Asian technology imports, such as transistors from China, get more expensive, it will benefit domestic companies to build more components in the Golden State. (Apple, for instance, has  said it plans to expand its manufacturing capabilities in California in response to tariffs.) As a result, jobs in electronic manufacturing are predicted to rise at the local and state levels.

San Francisco alone stands to gain more than 5,000 manufacturing jobs over the next 20 years, with 44% of that growth occurring in the computer hardware and electronics industry. If the courts uphold Trump’s tariffs, the city should look to capitalize on that opportunity, according to Egan. 

“It’s worth planning for that and trying to make SF more of a target for that kind of work,” Egan said. “Is there scope to do more?” 

Despite that boost, the tariffs will be one more challenge facing a city that has dealt with more than its fair share. Several years of brutal tech layoffs have taken a toll on overall employment rates, and the decrease in office workers has stressed small businesses and transit agencies

“We’ve had a relatively weak recovery from Covid,” Egan said, “and this is certainly not going to speed it up.”

Jillian D’Onfro can be reached at [email protected]