How a healthy Christian McCaffrey can take the 49ers offense from good to great

On Monday, the 49ers might open the practice window for someone their head coach, Kyle Shanahan, has recently called “the NFL MVP.”

That’s right, star running back Christian McCaffrey — a centerpiece of a 49ers offense that was historically good over the 2022 and 2023 seasons — is approaching a return to action. McCaffrey has been nursing Achilles tendinitis and the 49ers have been slow-playing his return, recognizing that they’ve been good enough to stay afloat without him.

But November is now here. Treading water is no longer adequate. The 49ers, who have a track record of surging at this time of the year, know it’s time to make a serious run — and that McCaffrey is a vital component to that effort.

What does the data say about how the offense has fared without McCaffrey and how much can it improve with him back in the fold?

The 49ers rank No. 7 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). Their passing game registers at No. 6 while their rushing attack checks in at No. 12. So the 49ers have maintained good offensive play, but they’ve no longer been elite. They ranked No. 1 overall, No. 1 in the pass, and No. 2 in the run game in 2023.

From a strictly individual standpoint, quarterback Brock Purdy might be playing even better than before — and he was already an MVP finalist in 2023.

But it’s a team sport and McCaffrey’s absence has been associated with major stylistic shifts for Purdy’s offense. Until a course correction in the 49ers’ most recent win against the Dallas Cowboys, the offense’s short-range passing attack had virtually disappeared. The 49ers still rank last in yards after the catch. Their short-range run game also continues to rank in the bottom half of the league.

These regressions have contributed to a major decline in red-zone efficiency. The 49ers, who topped the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage with McCaffrey last season, rank No. 27 in that category now. They rank only marginally better in average points scored per red-zone trip.

Let’s look at the variables underneath the hood of the 49ers’ offensive performance, starting with Purdy’s distribution in the pass game.

The chart below displays year-over-year changes in yards per route run (YPRR). Since it’s calculated on a per-route basis, YPRR is a much more accurate representation of any particular target’s efficiency and rapport with the quarterback than raw receiving yardage.

Brandon Aiyuk was among the NFL leaders last season. Prior to his season-ending ACL tear last month, Aiyuk’s efficiency had suffered a huge drop. The 49ers had managed to pick up much of that slack through upticks from receiver Jauan Jennings and tight end George Kittle, who now ranks No. 4 of all qualifying players — including wideouts — with 2.49 YPRR (due to his hip injury, Jennings doesn’t have enough plays to qualify for the league leaderboard).

There’s only one gaping hole in the 2024 outlook — and if rookie receivers Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing continue to successfully assimilate into the offense, it won’t be Aiyuk’s absence. Instead, the 49ers’ relative 2024 pass-game inefficiency has come at McCaffrey’s spot, where the offense simply hasn’t come close to replicating his receiving impact coming out of the backfield. McCaffrey’s 2023 YPRR number is 2.3 times greater than Mason’s 2024 mark.

And since McCaffrey generates so much defensive attention, his absence has almost certainly had far-reaching effects on other rows of the YPRR table. More attention dedicated to covering a running back, after all, means more room to operate for other targets.

According to Next Gen Stats, Purdy has been forced to throw into tight windows on nearly 20 percent of his throws. That’s the second-highest rate in the NFL. With McCaffrey playing in 2023, Purdy’s tight-window throw rate was just 12.8 percent, which ranked No. 25.

Long story short: It’s been much tougher sledding for the 24-year-old quarterback this season — and that’s even with the 49ers’ offensive line enjoying a renaissance in pass protection.

In 2023, the entire right side of the O-line was hugely problematic. Right guard Spencer Burford and right tackle Colton McKivitz scored only in the 2nd and 4th percentiles, respectively, in pass-blocking efficiency among players at their respective positions.

This season, rookie Dominick Puni has replaced Burford at right guard and McKivitz has taken significant strides.

Percentile scores above reflect pass-block efficiency and run-block grade, both from Pro Football Focus. Darker shades indicate better performance. All five of the 49ers’ starting offensive linemen score as above-average run blockers, while three — Puni, left tackle Trent Williams, and center Jake Brendel — have delivered above-average pass protection.

That’s hard to come by in a league facing a shortage of quality offensive linemen, especially relative to the surplus of explosive D-line talent. The 49ers, for perspective, rank as high as No. 8 in composite pass protection scores — a major step up from 2023, when they finished in the 20s.

Running back Jordan Mason has also carried the ball well in McCaffrey’s place, as evidenced by his 685 rushing yards — third-most in the league — and solid score in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rushing yards over expectation.

The 49ers have also generated 63 explosive plays, the third most in the NFL. That includes 33 explosive runs — a testament to blocking improvements for Mason and rookie speedster Issac Guerendo — and 30 explosive passing plays, the most in the league.

In all, the 49ers rank second to only the Baltimore Ravens in total offensive yards per game (412.4), but No. 8 in total points per game (26.3). The aforementioned red-zone inefficiency certainly explains some of that difference. So does the fact that the 49ers have seen two touchdowns’ worth of expected points wiped out by penalties.

Simply put, the 49ers are aiming to ensure that they start enjoying production that’s equal to the impressive sum of their offensive parts. And that’s exactly where McCaffrey, who’s such an influential force in both the run and pass games, can again serve as the glue of the offense.

That’s especially true since most of the 49ers’ other offensive variables, from Purdy to the O-line to the receiving corps, are all performing well in a vacuum. It’s now about seamlessly melding the entire operation together and ensuring that point production isn’t left on the table.

The numbers suggest that there’s a feast for the taking right now. McCaffrey, whenever he does return, should be ready to enjoy a hearty meal.