For Type A parents in San Francisco, receipt of a rejection letter from their top choice of private school can trigger a life crisis.
For real estate agents in Marin, however, it’s a business opportunity. And the day those rejection letters arrive — known locally as “Letter Day,” falling this year on Thursday— is to their profession what Black Friday is to Walmart.
“People are scrambling when they don’t get into the school they want,” said Keith Offord, a Marin-based realtor. “Enough people believe the schools are so bad [in San Francisco] that they are willing to spend money to come to Marin.”
This is especially true in the leafy enclaves of Ross, Belvedere-Tiburon, Kentfield, and Greenbrae, where the public schools from kindergarten and up are known to be “bulletproof.” This is the neck of the woods where Gov. Gavin Newsom’s family bought an abode in November, for similar reasons.
“If the [SF] private schools that come through are in your top three, then it’s like, ‘OK, great,’” said Jeff Marples, who moved his kids from Haight-Ashbury to Tiburon for the public schools. “That puts a stake in the ground.”
‘If you’re going to be in SF, you have to come to the realization that [your kids] are going to end up in private school.’
Parent Jeff Marples
But when the letters carry less-than-ideal results, parents surf property listings to see what they can afford before gathering for a serious, number-crunching conversation after the kids are put to bed. They must act fast, as residency has to be established in order to apply for Marin public schools.
“You have a family planning talk,” said Marples, who also sells homes in Marin and San Francisco. “Like: ‘OK, maybe we are going to move to Marin.’”
‘Tell them to wait’
Retirees and empty nesters are the most common types to put their homes on the market in order to downsize or move out of the county, according to real estate agents.
In north Marin, buyers are hard-pressed to find a move-in ready home for less than $2 million. In the south, the number is more like $4 million, with regular sales of $6 million or more.
Over the past five years, the median home value in San Francisco and southern Marin has hovered around $1.4 million. Meanwhile, prices in Novato, where the median value is $1.2 million, have increased by nearly $400,000.
Because demand is higher than supply, desirable homes often get more than the asking price, and sales happen very quickly.
These homes have a standard commission of 5%, typically split 50/50 among the selling and listing agents. That means agents in Marin stand to make more than $100,000 on just one of these springtime sales.
Tracy McLaughlin, a Marin-based real estate agent and author who has sold homes for as much as $28 million, says she is often asked whether to delay listings until after the letters come out.
“Sellers always say, ‘Tracy, should we list the week the private school notices come out?’” McLaughlin said. “‘Is that the best week to list?’”
The number of listings peaks in Marin around Letter Day, although McLaughlin thinks it could just be the nice weather. She notes that families that can afford a $5 million home know how to get their kids into the right private school in SF.
But while McLaughlin rejects the gravity of the infamous Letter Day, other real estate agents embrace it.
“If I had someone who was thinking about listing right now, I might tell them to wait,” Offord said last week.
‘A nonstarter’
The Standard spoke with nine Marin-based real estate agents who said the public school system in San Francisco is increasingly seen as “a nonstarter” for well-to-do parents who want a rigorous and engaging educational experience for their children.
‘If I had someone who was thinking about listing right now, I might tell them to wait.’
Real estate agent Keith Offord
San Francisco Unified School District has spiraled amid a steep enrollment decline of 5,533 students between 2019 and 2021, coinciding with Covid moving everything remote for the 2020-21 school year. (Though the district had a big boost in applications this year thanks to a state law mandating transitional kindergarten).
In October, the district released a list of 13 public schools that could be shut down or merged in order to balance a deficit of around $113 million for the 2025-26 school year, sparking outrage that led the superintendent to resign. In February, SFUSD sent layoff notices to 837 employees, only to reverse that decision last week, resulting in a frustrated teachers union that epitomizes a district that rich parents simply can’t trust anymore.
The academic ratings of SFUSD’s elementary, middle, and high schools vary widely. Getting admitted to the best or most geographically convenient school involves a competitive lottery, one that could send you to a school across the city from your home. Realtors say public school decisions alone, many of which went out Monday, inspire their own property scramble within the city.
This week, many who didn’t get into their top choice are looking at private schools — if not houses — in the East Bay, the Peninsula, or Marin.
SF’s private schools are diverse, offering perks like boys- or girls-only instruction, French, German, Spanish, or Chinese immersion, or alternative classes. Most are either K-8 or 9-12, although some offer preschool or instruction from elementary through high school.
The most exclusive schools, like Stuart and Convent Hall in Pacific Heights or The Bay School in the Presidio, cost close to $60,000 a year for high school without scholarships or financial aid, while Friends School and Children’s Day School cost more than $40,000 a year for elementary students.
The city’s Catholic schools, like Saint Brigid Academy and St. Anne School, are often cheaper, with tuition for elementary school at less than $20,000.
But if none of these schools are in a family’s price range, or if the kids can’t get admitted, it could be time to head north.
‘They want to see’
Stephanie Lamarre is a self-proclaimed “education nerd” who moved her toddler from Pacific Heights to Ross in 2000 for smaller class sizes and better extracurricular opportunities. Lamarre, who sells homes in Marin, says she “absolutely” believes that the public schools are the No. 1 reason families move there from SF.
“We do tend to get quite a few families from the city who might choose to come here if they haven’t gotten into their private school of choice,” said Lamarre. “I have several buyers who have told me they’re waiting to possibly make an offer on one of my listings until the time that they find out about their private-school decisions.”
Many of these families love San Francisco but just can’t stomach dropping exorbitant sums for their kids to attend private school.
For this reason, Ann Laury, a mother of four, made the move from the Marina to Tiburon a decade ago, when her two youngest were heading into the first and third grades.
“There’s no way they could all go private,” said Laury, who grew up in France, where she believes the public schools are better.
Laury, who also works as a Marin-based real estate agent, said she has “high-profile clients” who “want to see if they are accepted to private school” before they make a move.
There is a flexibility that comes with living in Marin, parents say, because the private and public schools are excellent. If, for whatever reason, a kid doesn’t get into the private school they want in Marin, it’s no big deal.
“If you’re going to be in SF, you have to come to the realization that [your kids] are going to end up in private school,” said Marples. “Some of these [public] schools in the city of SF, they’re not great schools.”
And since many SF students travel to other neighborhoods, it can be difficult for parents to be involved in the school community, Marin parents say. Moreover, parents in Marin are mostly better off financially — meaning there are more opportunities for bonds (or drama) to occur among parents, since so many are available to attend school meetings and sporting events.
“When people are choosing where their kids are going to go to school, it’s the community that you’re getting into,” said Marples. “Find the parents you want to experience the next whatever years of your life with.”
While the Marples family and others affirm their decision, several real estate agents said they know clients who, after leaving the city, are missing it and even considering moving back. While Marin offers world-class hiking and a potentially short and scenic drive to SF for a night out, neighborhoods can feel like the countryside.
That, or one big affluent suburb, which means parents and kids rule everything.
“Parents get involved over here,” said Joshua Deitch, another real estate agent who has noted the “phenomenon” of Letter Day in Marin. “They have foundations.”