In the year and a half that Mayor Daniel Lurie has been in the public spotlight, his stance on housing has been a bit of a mystery. On other issues, he has been clear. Public safety? He wants more cops. Homelessness? More shelter. But housing development? His statements on the campaign trail were nebulous.
That changed Thursday, when San Francisco’s state-mandated rezoning plan was made public, with Lurie’s support. The plan calls for upzoning much of the city, including the west side, an area that hasn’t seen significant development for decades and holds a voter base that’s traditionally opposed to more housing.
Those same west-side voters in large part propelled Lurie, with his moderate messaging and tough-on-crime policies, into the mayor’s office. And some of them — already riled by the closure of the Great Highway that’s sparked a supervisorial recall — feel they’ve been stabbed in the back.
“I think it is going to be perceived as an outrageous betrayal,” said Deidre Von Rock, president of the West Portal Merchants Association. “I don’t think there’s going to be a recall. But it will turn people off for another election.”
Lurie said Thursday that the city has made it “easier to block new homes than to build them” and that the state provided “a clear mandate to build more housing, with real consequences if we don’t.” (In an apparent effort to make the plan more palatable, the mayor is avoiding the word “upzoning” and instead using “family zoning.”)
So, what does the zoning proposal entail?
The most significant change will allow more homeowners to divide their property into multiple dwellings. Previously, only property owners in certain pockets of the city could take advantage of this opportunity, but the rezoning will make it available en masse.
The other big difference will be in west-side commercial and transit streets, such as the Richmond’s California, Geary, Balboa, and Fulton corridors, where allowable building heights will be raised to six to eight stories. The same will apply to the Sunset on Lincoln, Irving, Judah, Noriega, and Taraval — heights on some corners could reach 14 stories. Other parts of the city, such as the Marina, Divisadero, Haight, Van Ness Avenue, Fisherman’s Wharf, and the southern part of Market, will also see height increases.
The proposal needs approval from the Planning Commission; it will then go to the Board of Supervisors and the mayor before the state gives it a final pass. Lurie’s statement Thursday alluded to “real consequences” if the city doesn’t reach a certain housing capacity, which means the potential for lawsuits or, in the worst-case scenario, the loss of local control over zoning.
The city has until January 2026 to send its blueprints to Sacramento. But little building is expected to happen immediately, considering that construction has dramatically slowed in recent years because of cloudy economic conditions and high interest rates.
Since taking office, Lurie has been lobbied by members of the YIMBY coalition, who have cautioned him of the political liabilities that could come with a housing plan that isn’t aggressive enough. That includes scenarios where the city would have to commit to more rezoning in 2027, an inopportune time that would overlap with Lurie’s potential reelection bid.
The warnings appear to have worked. Lurie delayed the release of the housing plan until this week and got the help of the UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation after YIMBYs argued that the proposal wasn’t ambitious enough.
Lurie also met with rezoning skeptics such as Neighborhoods United SF, one of the most visible groups fighting against the plans.
Katherine Petrin, a native west-sider and historic preservationist who has been critical of the rezoning plans, said she remains in support of Lurie, but neighbors are already feeling disappointed over his stance.
“The unveiling of the upzoning plan was the moment where Lurie had to take a hard stand that reveals his true position and alignment,” said Petrin, a founding member of Neighborhoods United SF. “Throughout his campaign, he seemed to understand the issues of concern of voters on the west side, housing and zoning being the biggest. Lurie made the decision to choose YIMBY over his constituents.”
Lori Brooke, also a founding member of the organization, said she thinks former Mayor London Breed lost reelection partly because of her YIMBY stance. Breed introduced a map last year that is mostly the same as the one Lurie is backing.
“If the map was toxic to Breed, I think it could be tricky for Lurie to navigate how the perception of this map will be to his constituents,” said Brooke. “I think everyone was hoping he would push back on the state. … Lurie is caught between those two worlds: his constituents, and the state and their unrealistic demands.”
But not everyone is let down.
District 7 Supervisor Myrna Melgar, who supported Breed during the November election, called Lurie’s move a “courageous gamble.”
“He is going to piss off a bunch of people,” said Melgar. “And a bunch of people who supported him. So, it is courageous that he is standing up for doing what I think is right. Even though it is going to cost him.”