5 political fights that will define SF this year

The San Francisco political world has surrendered its arms over the last few weeks — a holiday ceasefire, if you will. 

But don’t mistake the peace for the new normal. The new year is bound to be a combative one at City Hall. Who will throw the first jab? Who will get knocked down? And who will be victorious?

Here are the political battles that will define San Francisco’s 2025.

We don’t know how Daniel Lurie will behave as mayor. But one thing is certain: With no experience working in government, he’s going to have to figure out how to navigate the 11-headed monster that is the Board of Supervisors. 

Lurie has made early moves to shake up of the structure of the mayor’s office and rein in City Hall bureaucracy. But his governing style — which some are already comparing to that of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who embraced private-sector leadership — will go up against a labyrinth of public-sector rules and regulations. As his predecessor London Breed recently lamented, Lurie can’t hire and fire department heads at the snap of a finger.

Lurie’s thin moderate majority on the Board of Supervisors may be another problem. A recall of Supervisor Joel Engardio could shift the balance of power to progressives, or at least put more pressure on supervisors who are considered swing votes. That would put Lurie in a tough spot working with an uncooperative board — similar to how Breed spent much of her last term.

Whatever the issue is — immigration, LGBTQ+ rights, abortion access — San Francisco’s elected officials will almost certainly fight against whatever President-elect Donald Trump has in store.

There is already talk of liberal cities seeing their federal funding cut if they disobey Trump’s proposals to carry out mass deportations. The courts could stymie those plans, according to immigration experts. But if the Trump administration successfully cuts off funding, it would be disastrous for San Francisco, which already faces a $867 million deficit (more on that below). This could lead to the loss of a considerable chunk of Federal Emergency Management Agency aid, while local health services could be strained if Medicare and Medicaid policies are tweaked, according to city forecasts.

California Democrats have also raised alarm bells about a constitutional convention, which could allow Republicans to rewrite laws in an effort to claw back civil rights or abortion access.

The battle will likely resemble Trump’s first administration, when California was the center of Democratic pushback against the president. However, this time will be a bit different: Mayor-elect Lurie ran a campaign focused solely on fixing the city’s local issues, such as improving street conditions, addressing homelessness, and bringing back tourism. That means a more minor clash could break out over priorities between those who want to spend energy on the city’s problems and those who want to make San Francisco a stronghold of resistance against Trump. 

A long-simmering congressional scrum may reach a boiling point this year. Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who has represented San Francisco in Congress for nearly four decades, just won another term. Still, questions have cropped up about whether she will remain in office. 

She may try passing the baton to her daughter Christine, who is rumored to be angling for the seat. While Pelosi, 84, has filed paperwork to run again, she has challengers waiting in the wings.

State Sen. Scott Wiener has formed an exploratory committee for the 11th District seat, though his office has been quiet recently about when he’ll turn that into a formal campaign. However, he faced a bruising defeat this year after his bill to regulate artificial intelligence was struck down by Gov. Gavin Newsom — and enraged some of his longtime allies in tech. Meanwhile, Wiener has steadfastly said he will never challenge Pelosi.

Trump’s election win could have changed plans for all parties; Pelosi could stick around to fight back against the Republican president. 

The budget brawl that breaks out yearly at City Hall could be even testier in 2025. The city’s finances will be in the hole over the next two years, and officials are looking to slash their way to erasing a whopping deficit. 

The fight could center on funding for nonprofits, which have faced increased scrutiny in recent years as scandal after scandal has led to questions about City Hall’s fiscal oversight. 

In her budget directions to department heads, outgoing Mayor London Breed specifically pointed to the $1 billion funneled yearly to nonprofits, arguing that city funding should be directed only toward organizations with “strong outcomes.” 

Lurie has made accountability a key tenant in his policy platform, promising to require contractors to abide by performance metrics and make nonprofits register as lobbyists.

The passage of Proposition K, which will permanently close the Great Highway near Ocean Beach, drew new lines in the political sandbox. 

A recall effort is underway against Supervisor Engardio, led by angry Sunset residents who claim he rammed through Prop. K without their consultation. The movement is in its infancy and will need 10,000 signatures to get on the ballot. But even if the effort fails, it reflects a significant political divide that may end up competing with the progressive-versus-moderate dynamic that has long defined San Francisco politics.

The battle will revolve around urban residents advocating for car-free spaces, increased housing density, and better public transit. On the other side are the backers of the Engardio recall effort, who don’t want skyscrapers and bicycle lanes encroaching on their suburban-esque neighborhoods. The dynamic puts Engardio in a tricky spot with homeowners, many of whom are now taking the lead on the recall.